"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he'll put the same amount on the second game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as Bongbet make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."