There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are Kubet77 that could be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.