There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. A great deal of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. 78WIN casino managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.