There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, Jun88 vegas can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.