There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should link jun88 placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.