The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't ought to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each and every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win should you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. link vào Thabet winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because increasingly more are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.